RESEARCH
8
LOCATIONS – PRIZES & AWARDS – PRODUCTION PROCESSES –
NEWS AND INFORMATION
n the lead-up to strategic develop-
ment, various areas of technological
and social developments are identified,
analysed and evaluated at SCHERDEL
using the innovation and technology
analysis, an instrument for strategic ori-
entation. The aim is to discover the re-
spective opportunities and risks for the
Group and its customers in relation to
future developments and corresponding
challenges and to identify the measures
which may contribute to an overall posi-
tive result. The forecasts are prepared
for a medium-term and a long-term time
horizon of five and fifteen years respec-
tively. The basic requirements for utilis-
ing the findings for strategic develop-
ment are their scientific quality, eco-
nomic relevance and usability. In this
age of communication and the Internet,
it is particularly important that press re-
ports, which are distributed by various
interest groups, are evaluated seriously
and credibly.
There will always be incorrect assess-
ments despite analysing and monitoring
trends. Good ideas may, for instance,
be rejected during the idea evaluation
process due to Type II Errors – also
known as false negative errors or α-er-
rors – since their innovative character is
not reflected in the existing value sys-
tem or they are rendered paralysed
through over-analysis. And finally finan-
cial restraints often cause innovation to
stall. Type I Errors – also known as
false positive errors or β-errors –
demonstrate the reverse instance. In
this case, extensive resources are
invested in an idea which ultimately
turns out to be misguided and not mar-
ketable. This occurs if key criteria of the
idea evaluation process are not met or
if the ‘pet idea’ of an influential opinion
leader is not questioned.
There is general agreement within the
industry that no one can accurately pre-
dict the automotive future and, in partic-
ular, the drive solutions of tomorrow.
Also of interest here is a look back at
predictions made in 2002 and then
comparing them with current forecasts.
Predictions that the combustion en-
gine would be the dominating drive
technology for the next three decades
in combination with an electric motor as
a hybrid drive have been confirmed by
various studies. While the potential rate
of growth for vehicles with a hybrid
drive, i.e. the combination of a combus-
tion engine and an electric motor, is
adjudged to be fairly high, the forecasts
for pure battery electric vehicles are
less favourable.. The scepticism and
mistrust evinced towards electric cars
are basically based on their range and
charging limitations, battery reliability,
their resale value and the high cost
structures, especially in terms of small
vehicles. The same applies to fuel cell
vehicles with their currently unaccept-
Technology analysis – the
Scientific strategic planning for tomorrow’s drive c
I
Profile
Prof. Dr. Franz Magerl,
freelance consultant
R&D SCHERDEL
Email:
Since taking up a freelance role
in 2007, Prof. Dr. Franz Magerl
has been providing valuable sup-
port to the SCHERDEL subsidiary
INNOTEC GmbH in Poppenreuth
near Marktredwitz, which is re-
sponsible for research and inno-
vation. After successfully complet-
ing his vocational training, the
now 52-year-old studied Mechani-
cal Engineering at the University
of Applied Sciences in Regens-
burg and the University of
Stuttgart. In 1994, he completed a
doctorate at the Max-Planck-Insti-
tute for Metals Research in
Stuttgart, focussing on the struc-
ture and fracture-mechanical as-
pects of engine and turbine con-
struction, and received numerous
awards for his scientific works.
Prof. Dr. Magerl has gained
professional experience at several
renowned companies as a
research and development engi-
neer, for example in the field of
material engineering and structur-
al mechanics, and for diesel and
petrol injection technology. During
this period the experienced engi-
neer further enhanced his exper-
tise in the area of material engi-
neering by participating in a study
and research group in Japan.
Prof. Dr. Franz Magerl has been
teaching at the Amberg-Weiden
University of Applied Sciences
since 1997 and is responsible for
Technical Mechanics, Materials,
Development & Design, Combus-
tion Engines and Computer Aided
Engineering. He has also been
the Dean of the Faculty of Indus-
trial Engineering since its incep-
tion phase. Furthermore, he
played a lead role in overhauling
and further developing numerous
degree courses, such as Industrial
Engineering, European Business
& Language Studies, Medical
Engineering and Intercultural
Business and Technology Man-
agement. His main focus of re-
search is the application of innov-
ative methods and processes in
product development.
(dk)
Continental estimates for global sales growth 2015, 2020, 2025
(Source: 34th International Vienna Motor Symposium 2013)
